Iowa 77, Louisiana Tech 58

The Hawks deserve two pics tonight, one for each player battling both Louisiana Tech and illness.

Melsahn Basabe was a little under the weather, and you could tell by how gassed he looked just minutes into the first half; during a LaTech free throw attempt, he had his hands on his knees and looked to be gasping for air. Jarryd Cole, however, was apparently sick as a dog. He missed the pre-game shoot round, ate only a couple spoonfuls of soup for the last 36 hours, and took an IV at noon for fluid and nourishment. Despite his condition, he scored 10 points and grabbed 12 rebounds. A double-double with the flu is no small feat, and he now has eight days to get better; the Hawks open the Big Ten season on the 29th against Illinois.

Speaking of the Big Ten season — the last of the 11-team era — I have been mulling over a conference prediction. Last year I predicted four wins and the Hawks got four wins. (It should have been five, but whatever.) I decided that very early in the season; the team looked bad enough to give me a confident gut instinct. But this year is different: I do not have the same confidence to make a prediction.

After the game, Bobblehead sent me a bold prognostication of his own: .500. That means the Hawks would post a 9-9 conference record. A nine-win Big Ten campaign is not out of the question, but I am not willing to be that optimistic. Though the ’10-’11 Hawks are much improved and a head more athletic than last year’s squad, I think the team will still struggle. The conference is very strong this year, but there are vulnerabilities among the teams at the top of the table. Pre-conference, Illinois and Michigan State have not lived up to potential, and the absence of Robbie Hummel has thrown a big, rusty wrench in Purdue’s gears. Though still talented, I also do not think Minnesota is as strong as they were last year. Ohio State is the crème of the crop, and the only way the Hawks could eek out a win is through intense effort, luck, and exploiting the Buckeyes’ fab freshman. The Hawks only play Wisconsin once, thankfully in Iowa City, but the Badgers are a very formidable foe. Not only has Northwestern given the Hawks fits lately (both on the hardwood and football field), the Wildcats are stocked with smart sharpshooters. (Yes, I just placed Northwestern in the Big Ten’s upper echelon.) The Hawks may get two or three wins against this company.

I think the Hawks will get the bulk of their conference victories against Indiana, Michigan, and Penn State. None of those games are a given, but Fran and company have to know they are the most winnable; they are the games the Hawks need to take. The Hawks only play the Nittney Lions in State College this year, but we have home-and-home match-ups with the Hoosiers and Wolverines. The Hawks got castrated in Ann Arbor last year, so I think the veterans want to actually show up this season; I am sure they also want to avenge a heartbreaking overtime loss in Iowa City. The Hawks throttled the Hoosiers in both meetings last year, so hopefully a repeat performance is in the works.

Getting three or four wins amongst the conference runts is realistic. Earning two or three hard fought victories against the contenders is doable. Given that reasoning, I suppose five to six wins is a good prediction. However, I feel that shortchanges the effort the Hawks are making and the outstanding defense they are capable of playing. If one player is having an off night, someone else steps up and carries the load. There is a lot of spirit and hunger on this team, so I am going to cautiously predict a range of five to eight Big Ten wins.